Canada Housing Market Forecast 2024 - Lumina Real Estate Investment Advisor

What is the forecast for Canada’s real estate market in 2024?

The Canadian Real Estate Association (CREA) forecasts a 6.1% increase in home sales in 2024, totaling approximately 472,395 transactions. This growth, while notable, represents a tempered recovery, with CREA adjusting its outlook due to elevated inventory levels and a slower-than-expected resurgence in demand.

Average home prices are expected to rise modestly by 2.5%, reaching around $694,393 by the end of the year. CMHC’s outlook supports this projection, indicating that economic factors like inflation and interest rates will likely continue impacting buyer behavior, especially in early 2024.

How much will a house cost in Canada in 2024?

The national average home price is projected to be around $694,393 in 2024, though prices will vary widely by region. Ontario and British Columbia may see price stability due to higher inventory levels, while Quebec and certain Atlantic regions could experience more robust growth as demand remains steady in those areas.

What is the housing market prediction for 2025 in Canada?

By 2025, CREA expects a stronger recovery, with home sales projected to increase to approximately 501,902 units. This rebound is anticipated as economic conditions stabilize further and interest rate cuts support more affordable borrowing.

What is the next 5-year forecast for real estate in Canada?

Long-term projections point to steady growth in Canada’s housing market, driven by ongoing population increases and sustained demand. Affordability over the next five years will heavily rely on expanding housing supply to keep up with demand.

According to RBC Economics 315,000 new housing units will need to be added annually to meet the needs of an expanding population, underscoring the need for policy and industry responses to increase housing availability.

Will mortgage rates go down in 2024 in Canada?

The Bank of Canada has already reduced the policy rate to 4% in 2024, and further cuts are expected in the latter half of the year if inflation remains on a downward trend. This reduction should benefit variable-rate mortgage holders sooner, while fixed-rate mortgages may take longer to adjust due to broader economic uncertainties.

Will property prices go up in 2024?

Yes, CREA forecasts a 2.5% rise in average home prices across Canada in 2024, though this varies by region:

• Ontario: Slight price increases are expected, with more favorable conditions for buyers due to high inventory.

• British Columbia: Prices may stabilize or see small declines in high-cost regions like Vancouver.

• Quebec: Demand-driven markets, like Montreal, are expected to experience stronger price growth.

Are home prices dropping in Canada?

In certain regions, yes. For example, British Columbia’s average home price fell by 2.4% year-over-year in September 2024, with Greater Vancouver experiencing a 3.2% drop. However, other areas, such as Quebec, continue to see price increases driven by local demand.

Is it cheaper to buy land and build a house in Canada?

Building a home can be cost-effective in less populated areas, though rising material costs, labor shortages, and zoning regulations can complicate and increase the cost of construction. For many buyers in high-demand areas, purchasing an existing property remains the more feasible option.

Will housing ever be affordable again in Canada?

Improving housing affordability will largely depend on increasing supply. RBC Economics projects that Canada will need to add 315,000 new units per year through 2030 to match demand from population growth and immigration. However, labor shortages and high construction costs make this a challenging target, particularly in urban areas like the GTA and Vancouver.

How much will houses cost in Canada in 2026?

While precise numbers vary, CREA and CMHC suggest gradual price increases over the coming years, with demand driven by population growth. Long-term price stabilization will depend on increased supply and government efforts to meet this demand.

Why is housing so expensive in Canada?

High demand, limited supply, and rising construction costs are primary drivers of Canada’s housing prices, especially in major cities. Contributing factors also include zoning restrictions, population growth, and slower construction rates, which all exacerbate affordability challenges.

What is the Bank of Canada rate prediction?

The Bank of Canada has already reduced rates to 4% in 2024, and additional cuts are expected as inflation stabilizes. This easing aims to reduce borrowing costs, potentially improving affordability for homebuyers.

Is 2024 a good time to buy a house in Canada?

The decision depends on personal financial readiness and long-term goals. High inventory in Ontario and British Columbia offers more favorable conditions for buyers in these areas. However, Quebec and some Atlantic provinces continue to experience steady price growth, which may make waiting beneficial for those considering highly competitive markets.

Will house prices drop in Ontario in 2024?

Ontario’s market may see only minor price changes, with increased inventory leading to a buyer’s market in 2024. The Greater Toronto Area (GTA) saw prices down 1.1% year-over-year, making it a potentially favorable time for buyers.

What is the future of housing in Canada?

The long-term outlook suggests stable growth, with potential affordability improvements contingent on increased supply and sustained population growth. Economic stability and policy interventions to increase housing construction will likely play critical roles in meeting future demand.

Is Canada having a housing crisis?

Yes, Canada faces a housing crisis fueled by high demand, limited supply, and rising costs. Government and industry efforts to increase housing availability are ongoing, though labor and material challenges persist.

What will mortgage rates be in 2024 in Canada?

Mortgage rates are projected to gradually decline as the Bank of Canada reduces its policy rate, though fixed rates may remain higher initially. Variable rates are expected to adjust more quickly in response to ongoing rate cuts.

How high will rates go in 2024?

Interest rates in 2024 are likely to stabilize near 4%, though potential cuts later in the year may further reduce borrowing costs. The Bank of Canada aims to balance rate adjustments to stimulate housing demand without driving inflation.

What is the market outlook for 2024?

The market outlook for 2024 is one of cautious growth, with slight price increases and stable sales. Interest rate cuts may improve conditions, though affordability challenges remain.

For expert support, Lumina Real Estate Investment Advisors provides comprehensive analysis, helping clients make informed decisions in Canada’s evolving real estate market.

For buyers, sellers, and investors, Canada’s 2024 housing market presents both challenges and opportunities. Consulting with advisors like Lumina Real Estate Investment Advisors can offer valuable insights into navigating these dynamics.